By Noah Hickman
What determines whether an NFL quarterback is a boom or a bust?
There is no obvious answer and even to the experts, it is a guessing game.
Factors such as stability in the organization, coaching, the player's intangibles, pieces around him, etc. are key when making a determination if a quarterback will be a boom or bust; all that that may not be enough to see the big picture.
Let's get down to business and rank the deep 2021 quarterback class.
5. Zach Wilson
There is no doubt that this guy has some elite potential but him going to the New York Jets is either going to really work out or really backfire and with him having to play the Bills, Dolphins and Patriots twice a year, I choose the latter.
Sure, I think general manager Joe Douglas did a good job of adding pieces in the draft like Alijah Vera-Tucker and Elijah Moore to build around Wilson, but there are a lot of red flags that stand out to me.
Wilson does not have a true mentor at quarterback around him like the other four quarterbacks that got drafted in the first round
The second and third string quarterbacks are Conference USA scrubs (no disrespect to Marshall) with no starting experience named James Morgan (Florida International) and Mike White (Western Kentucky).
That means Zach Wilson will be thrown into the fire and be forced to start week one against the Carolina Panthers who have former Jet Sam Darnold.
Carolina might be a team that is looking to find its stride but trust me -- this is a trap game.
Wilson only had one good year and most of his opponents were way inferior to BYU.
In his senior season He threw for 3,692 yards with 33 touchdowns and three interceptions on 73.5% passing; he also ran for 254 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Wilson's prior two seasons, where he started in only 16 games, had a stat line of 3,960 yards 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 63.7% of his passes.
Wilson was not even projected to be drafted until his breakout senior season.
He also has an extensive injury history as he has torn both his left and right shoulder labrums requiring surgery and a fractured his right thumb also requiring surgery.
Finally, Wilson was 0-5 against college teams that recorded 10+ wins.
It should also be noted that he did not exactly play against powerhouses like Alabama and Clemson.
The five teams he played against were Coastal Carolina (2020), Hawaii (2019, San Diego State (2019), Utah (2019) and Boise State (2018).
In those games he went 0-5, completed 61.7% of his passes, threw for a single touchdown and a whopping seven interceptions.
When you factor in he is going to be in the toughest defensive division in the NFL, his offense has no superstar threat, the Jets have a bad offensive line and a rookie head coach, it is easy to see why it is why it will likely not work out for him -- best of luck though!
4. Justin Fields
It wasn't easy putting Fields at No. 4 but when you look at what he does well and doesn't do well, the weaknesses are a lot more damning especially if you do not end up in the right situation.
He is a game changing athlete with electric speed who is accurate with his passes, possesses good leadership and has unique toughness.
When I watched Fields take a cheap shot against Clemson I thought he was in too much pain to continue.
He not only returned while he was injured; he managed to throw for six touchdown passes while taking down the Tigers and 'golden boy' Trevor Lawrence 49-28.
Unfortunately, it was revealed he has been dealing with epilepsy for many years and Fields himself has informed teams about it prior to the draft.
Doctors say it is manageable and with the information that is available, he seems to be managing it fine.
Epilepsy is a disease that can affect people down the road and sadly the most prominent example is Cameron Boyce whose life was taken too soon by the horrible disorder.
I just don't count on Fields being the guy for the Chicago Bears and epilepsy is not the only reason.
He does not do well when his first option is not available and is not good when asked to survey the field.
With the Bears being the pathetic offense they are, he is going to be asked to survey the field more times than desirable.
Like Wilson, Fields has an injury history but has managed to play through them.
It was revealed that Fields dealt with a knee injury in 2019 but still managed to put up 45 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions.
I mentioned above that Fields got injured in the 2021 Clemson-Ohio State game but did not specify that it was a rib injury.
Unlike Wilson, he does have a veteran quarterback who can mentor and guide him in Andy Dalton which will likely allow him to sit for a few weeks and learn.
I really want Fields to succeed as he is probably the most likeable quarterback in the draft but there are too many red flags for me to say with a straight face that Fields is a sure thing.
3. Mac Jones
When I heard rumors that the San Francisco 49ers were trading up to get Mac Jones I immediately laughed, ridiculed and scoffed at them.
Not to say that Jones won't be a good NFL quarterback (I think he will) but why in the world would the 49ers trade up a few spots just to get someone with a limited ceiling.
As it turns out the 49ers took Trey Lance and logic trumped the reporters who clearly fell for the smoke screen.
Lance has all the physical tools: he's fast, big, strong all-around and has a big time throwing arm.
When somebody wants to make a splash they take sexy potential over boring and textbook and Mac Jones is the latter.
He is not a natural athlete and has an average arm.
What he doesn't make up in physical traits he makes up with his brain and accuracy.
The game is making a slow transition where the flashy and athletic guys with strong arms are taking over the league with good coaches maximizing their potential.
Mac Jones is more of an old school quarterback who is not that mobile but makes smart decisions and will beat you with his brain.
I think his floor is Jimmy Garoppolo and his ceiling is Matt Ryan (five time pro bowler and 2016 MVP).
Playing with the New England Patriots and sitting behind a former MVP in Cam Newton will benefit him as he will not be hurried into the spotlight and will have ample time to learn the Patriot way.
Bill Belichick can be unpredictable but my thinking is he will take his sweet time with Mac Jones presuming Newton avoids a serious injury.
2. Trey Lance
The guy I mentioned above is at No. 2.
I admired his skillset while saying that he has a sky-high ceiling.
Honestly, for a kid who is coming out of North Dakota State, he could not have landed in a better situation than the San Francisco 49ers.
Reader beware, the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl in 2020 and Jimmy Garoppolo was the quarterback.
Now he is competing with Lance for the starting job and will have to mentor him one way or another.
I think it's safe to say that Garoppolo will be the starter for a while as he is a veteran who has had a lot of great moments.
But great quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have waited their turns and it paid dividends for them.
My only concern with Lance is his ball placement in tight windows.
I would say with a coach like Kyle Shanahan at your corner, that can easily be corrected with practice and just letting the ball fly.
There were times at NDSU where he would throw short to wide open guys and miss throws that were open enough downfield.
That might have to do with one's confidence in their abilities but with good mechanics and pocket awareness, it can be corrected easier than experts think.
1. Trevor Lawrence
Yeah, yeah, this guy has been the best quarterback ever since he was in grade school.
I think experts are hyping him up a little too much as I do not believe he will be the next Peyton Manning who revolutionized the game of football with his brain.
But Lawrence is pretty dang great and he will make a few pro bowls as he has some help to start him off on the right foot.
His two main receivers include DJ Chark and Marvin Jones and he has two good running backs in James Robinson and his college teammate in Travis Etienne.
He also has the spirit animal in Gardner Minshew to keep him entertained if he is not getting mentored by him.
It would be smart for the Jacksonville Jaguars to keep Minshew as even Lawrence has to learn the ropes of the NFL.
Lawrence has great arm talent, athleticism, accuracy and reads the field very well.
He is the greatest prospect since Andrew Luck and some say he may be better.
I don't exactly think all that is true since Patrick Mahomes is somebody who exists in this world but I like what the Jaguars have built around him on offense.
Let it not be lost that he plays the Houston Texans in week one which will be a guaranteed coming out party since the Texans are the projected worst team in the NFL and may be one of the worst teams in NFL history.
There are a lot of thoughts that I didn't get to share but could only condense my most prominent ones as it would take forever to read all of them.
Anyways, who do you think is the best quarterback in this years draft?
Is it someone in the first round or in rounds later?
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