By Noah Hickman
Summertime has only begun, but it is safe to say that this year has had the most unpredictable outcomes in the history of sports.
Whether we’re talking about underdogs making a run in the postseason, 8 seeds making it to the finals, or teams squashing media narratives, this season has been one for the ages…and let me tell you something…these upsets are not going to be anomaly, but a trend!
Maybe not like this season, but upsets are going to be more common going forward.
Hell, the trend is already happening in NCAA basketball.
To give you an example, a 15 seed has beaten a two seed in March Madness for three consecutive seasons.
A 15 seed has only beaten a 2 seed 10 times in NCAA tournament history.
For further context, since the 64-team format in March Madness began in 1985, 15 seeds are 10-138 all time against 2 seeds, which equates to a winning percentage of 6.25.
For three consecutive seasons, 15 seeds have beaten a two seed 25% of the time.
Here’s another stat: 16 seeds are 2-150 all time against 1 seeds.
The only two times a 16 seed beat a 1 seed was when the University of Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC) beat UVA 74-54 on March 16, 2018, and when Farleigh Dickinson University (FDU) beat Purdue 63-59 on March 17 of this year.
On top of that: there were no teams seeded above three that made it to the Elite Eight, no teams seeded above four that made it to the Final Four, a 9 seed that made it to the Final Four in Florida Atlantic University (FAU), and a team that cruised by all its opponent by 13 or more points to win the championship.
What is the probability of all this happening in the same season? Apparently more likely than somebody getting a perfect bracket.
Now, let’s go to the professional leagues, the NBA and NHL in particular.
Nobody dominated the regular season as nobody finished with 60 or more wins.
That was an early sign for me that this postseason was going to be spectacular.
However, I would be mendacious if I said that I think the Miami Heat would be in the NBA Finals.
The Heat were a seven seed prior to the play-in.
They lost to the Atlanta Hawks 116-105, and many were not expecting them to make the playoffs.
It was win or go home against the Chicago Bulls and the game had its series of runs, but the Heat found themselves trailing for most of the 4th quarter; but the switch flipped with three minutes to go in the game when they were trailing 90-87.
They finished the game on a 15-1 run and won 102-91, storming into the playoffs as an 8 seed.
The Heat then proceeded to get past the team that finished with the best record in the regular season, The Milwaukee Bucks, in five games.
This, despite two of their guards, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo sustaining major injuries which would not give any of them any playing time for the rest of the postseason (Herro was activated game 5 of the NBA finals but did not play).
Jimmy Butler carried the Heat past the Bucks averaging 37.6 points, six rebounds and 4.8 assists in the series and scoring 56 and 42 and games 4 and 5 respectively.
Butler would sprain his right ankle with 5:05 to go in Game 1 of the 4th quarter against the New York Knicks.
The Heat would go on to win 108-101, lose without Butler 111-105 in Game 2, and win Game 3 in his return 105-86.
Butler was not as dominate as the Heat won in six as he averaged 24.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and six assists.
And his inconsistency would continue against the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets as others such as Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin would contribute to the team.
Ultimately, Butler and the Heat ran out of gas as they would lose to the Nuggets in five.
Asked how much of an impact his sprained ankle had on his game, Butler said “Zero. My ankle is fine.”
Let me just say that Jimmy Buckets is a competitor and is never going to use a dinged-up ankle as an excuse for losing.
Since he won’t admit it, I will: his ankle impacted the way he played.
Regardless, nobody expected the Heat to make it this far; Butler and co. should give themselves a pat on the back because they made history and fought their butts off.
And give credit to the Denver Nuggets because they beat Miami at their own game.
They played great defense and won the transition, turnover and hustle battle.
Nikola Jokić won Finals MVP averaging 30.2 points, 14 rebounds and 7.2 assists in the finals.
On top of that, the Nuggets made NBA history in other ways: such as having the first duo in Jamal Murray and Jokić to have 30 point triple doubles in the same game and Jokić being the first individual to lead the NBA playoffs in points, rebounds and assists, and the first second-round draft pick to win Finals MVP.
On the other side, another South Florida team was an 8 seed and made it to the championship: this time, I’m talking about the Florida Panthers.
This run, in my opinion, was even more improbable and dominate because of the path the Panthers had to take to get to the Stanley Cup Final.
This team needed losses from the Buffalo Sabres and Pittsburgh Penguins just to get in the playoffs.
And even then, it was questioned whether it was worth being in it because they had to get past a team that had the best regular season in NHL history in the Boston Bruins; they finished 65-12-5.
They lost three of the first four games and everybody was counting them out…but then, something miraculous happened.
The Panthers won the next three games and won the series!
Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe made game winning shots in overtime in Game 5 and Game 7, respectively.
Brandon Montour scored the game-tying goal with 59.2 seconds to go in regulation to keep the Panthers season alive in Game 7.
They would win the game 4-3 and it was apparent the Panthers were poised for a Cinderella run.
They would go on to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in five games and deflate the Carolina Hurricanes by sweeping them in four.
I specifically say deflate because the Hurricanes lost 3-2 in 4OT in Game 1.
The match lasted 139 minutes and 47 seconds which surprisingly only counts as the sixth-longest game in NHL History.
The Hurricanes never recovered, and the Panthers would go on and advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
Only this time, they ran into a team bigger, stronger and deeper in the Vegas Golden Knights.
A team that has some playoff experience but missed the playoffs the previous season beat last year's Presidents’ Trophy winners in five games.
Three of those games were not even competitive, especially the last one where Florida lost 9-3.
What was even more cool was when Jonathan Marchessault won the Conn Smythe trophy becoming the first undrafted NHL player to win playoff MVP since Wayne Gretzky in 1988.
Pretty great considering the Stanley Cup was on TNT this year and The Great One is an analyst for Turner Sports.
Thanks for taking the time to read this long blog, and I can’t wait to see what happens in the MLB postseason.
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